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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions cover national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has has something to gain from the opposing arguments."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."